Keep an eye on the Volatility Index (VIX).

At the moment, it’s seeing higher highs and higher lows, but could really start to take off heading into the 2024 elections.  

Plus, according to Goldman Sachs, “We believe 1) VIX at a historically low level, 2) SPX close to its all-time highs, 3) high demand for upside asymmetry, 4) our model estimated upside to VIX and 5) upcoming macro/micro catalysts offer a compelling case for investors to own VIX calls.”

Also, remember:

• Before the 1992 election (Clinton v. Bush), the VIX ran from 12.47 to 20.51.
• Before the 1996 election (Clinton v. Dole), the VIX ran from 14 to 22.
• Before the 2000 election (Bush v. Gore), the VIX ran from 17 to 27.
• Before the 2004 election (Bush v. Kerry), the VIX ran from 13 to 16.7.
• Before the 2008 election (Obama v. McCain), the VIX ran from 20 to 90.
• Before the 2012 election (Obama v. Romney), the VIX ran from 15.5 to 22.
• Before the 2016 election (Trump v. Clinton), the VIX ran from 12 to 22.
• Before the 2020 election (Trump v. Biden), the VIX ran from 20 to 40.

While Goldman Sachs recommends buying VIX calls, we can also pick up the:

Pro Shares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY): As the VIX pops, so does the UVXY ETF, which was designed to match two times (2x) the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. 

iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (VXX): The VXX ETN, which provides exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index.
ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY): ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF provides long exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, which measures the returns of a portfolio of monthly VIX futures contracts with a weighted average of one month to expiration.