Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is up over 20% from its lows below $60,000, but a prominent crypto analyst on Wednesday cautioned that similar rallies in previous bear markets ultimately gave way to fresh lows.

Why BTC Needs to Break Resistance

In his latest podcast update, Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin has rallied back into what he calls the “bear market resistance band.” This is a key technical zone that has repeatedly capped BTC’s recovery attempts this year.

Bitcoin has spent much of recent months compressed between that resistance band and the 200-week moving average.

While reclaiming the 200-day moving average is constructive, Cowen said Bitcoin needs to push through the resistance band and subsequently hold it as support.

“Bitcoin still has a little bit to prove here,” Cowen said.

History Points To New Cycle Lows

Cowen pointed to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, when Bitcoin produced several sharp relief rallies before ultimately falling to new cycle lows.

In 2022, BTC recorded rallies of roughly 20% later in the year before breaking down again. Bitcoin also rallied nearly 30% during August 2018 before surrendering those gains.

The current rebound is consistent with previous bear-market rallies rather than definitive evidence that a new bull market has started.

Two Indicators Say Bottom Isn’t In

Cowen also highlighted two indicators that have yet to reach levels historically associated with major Bitcoin bottoms.

Bitcoin has not fallen below its realized price during the current bear market, something it did in 2011, 2014, 2018 and 2022.

The MVRV-Z Score has also not dropped below zero, another condition commonly seen around previous bear-market lows.

Neither signal guarantees Bitcoin must fall further, Cowen stressed, but they leave open the possibility of another downside move.

Cowen sees the rest of 2026 as Bitcoin’s key bearish window, arguing that if BTC doesn’t make a new low by year-end, a bearish outlook for 2027 would no longer be justified.

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